Analysis of the development status and trend of the semi-trailer industry. Lightweight and technological innovation are the main theme of future development "picture"
1. Overview of semi-trailer
A semi-trailer is a trailer whose axle is placed behind the center of gravity of the vehicle (when the vehicle is evenly loaded) and is equipped with a coupling device that can transmit horizontal and vertical forces to the tractor. Semi-trailers are generally three-axle semi-trailers, which are divided into eleven-meter warehouse semi-trailers, 13-meter warehouse semi-trailers, and low-flat semi-trailers. It is a heavy-duty transportation vehicle connected to the head of the semi-trailer through a tow pin.
Semi-trailers can be divided into eight categories: dump semi-trailers, low-flat semi-trailers, warehouse-type semi-trailers, container semi-trailers, powder material transport semi-trailers, ash-loading semi-trailers, flat-plate transport semi-trailers and other semi-trailers.
2. Development status of semi-trailers
In 2019, thanks to the tightening of regulations, the elimination of old vehicles, the rebound in infrastructure investment growth, and the upgrade of natural gas heavy trucks in China, the truck market sales continued to grow, driving the demand for semi-trailers. In 2019, semi-trailers The output was 1.385 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 110.5%.
The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in early 2020 has added a short-term downward adjustment to the economy. The new crown pneumonia epidemic changes the rhythm of China's macroeconomic economy, but does not change the trend. The short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy is very obvious, even greater than during the SARS period.
Related Reports: China Industry Research Institute released by " 2020--2025 China's semi-trailer industry market forecast and investment strategy research report "
After March, as the epidemic was quickly contained, enterprises resumed work and production, local governments increased infrastructure investment, engineering construction and logistics and transportation markets quickly recovered, and vehicle demand rebounded rapidly, driving the demand for semi-trailers to rebound, 1-6 2020 In September, the output of semi-trailers reached 367,000, a year-on-year decline of 1.8%.
At the beginning of 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic broke out, companies stopped work and production, construction sites were suspended, and the stagnation of economic activities impacted the market demand for semi-trailers. However, as the epidemic has been brought under control, enterprises and construction sites have resumed production and construction, engineering construction and the transportation industry have also resumed operation, demand for vehicles has grown rapidly, and the performance of the semi-trailer market has also rebounded. From April to June 2020, my country's semi-trailer production has achieved year-on-year growth for three consecutive months.
In the first half of 2020, judging from the output of the main types of semi-trailers, dump semi-trailers, container transport semi-trailers, ash loading semi-trailers, powder transport semi-trailers, and flatbed transport semi-trailers have all achieved year-on-year growth. Especially dump semi-trailers, after the epidemic was brought under control, in order to stimulate economic growth, the central and local governments increased their investment in infrastructure construction, and the rapid construction of infrastructure projects in various regions stimulated the demand for infrastructure-type vehicles. In the first half of 2020, the output of dump trucks was 164,000, a year-on-year increase of 205.1%, and the output of powder transportation semi-trailers was 16,000, a year-on-year increase of 132.3%.
3 the competitive landscape of semi-trailers
In terms of products, the entire semi-trailer market is dominated by three-axle products. From the first half of 2015-2020, the market share of three-axle products has remained above 90%, occupying an absolute dominant position. In the first half of 2020, due to the implementation of the per-axis charging policy, the market share of the two-axis products has increased, reaching 5.2%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points over the entire year of 2019.
From the perspective of the proportion of semi-trailer models, dump semi-trailers accounted for the largest proportion in the first half of 2020, reaching 46.2%, occupying an absolute dominant position. The second is container transport semi-trailers, with a proportion of 8.9%. Compared with dump semi-trailers, the market share gap is obvious.
4. Analysis of demand for semi-trailers in the second half of 2020
From the perspective of logistics, the prevention and control of the epidemic in the first half of the year achieved remarkable results, the logistics operation continued to recover, and the logistics demand structure was further optimized, especially in the field of people's livelihood. Logistics continued to improve. The scale of the logistics market has continued to increase, and logistics costs have been steadily declining.
From the perspective of the later trend, the national level "six stability" and "six guarantees" work measures have been continuously implemented, and economic operations have further increased the momentum for recovery. In this context, it is expected that the road transportation market demand still has the potential to pick up, and the demand for road logistics vehicles is maintained.
From a structural point of view, the logistics industry is facing further reform and optimization, and gradually develops into a large-scale, informatized, and intelligent modern logistics, and there is an increase in demand for high-efficiency cargo distribution. At the same time, with the advancement of overload management, the capacity and profit of trucks have declined, which will further promote the conversion of trucks to tractors and promote the market demand for logistics transportation semi-trailers.
From the perspective of infrastructure investment, the recovery of infrastructure investment accelerated in the second quarter and became the main support for stable investment. Project reserves and funds in place will jointly promote the recovery of infrastructure investment. At the same time, local government special bonds have expanded significantly, and the fiscal deficit has increased moderately. The large-scale issuance of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds will also favor infrastructure projects. Infrastructure REITs have opened up new financing channels. At the same time, foreign investment access for infrastructure projects has been further relaxed. Both will support the sources of capital investment in infrastructure construction and leverage supporting credits for corresponding projects.
It is expected that infrastructure investment will accelerate its recovery in the second half of the year. The advancement of infrastructure projects will play a strong supporting role in the commercial vehicle market and at the same time bring certain benefits to the dump truck market.
5. The future development trend of the semi-trailer industry
The attribute of production materials of semi-trailers determines that its market development is closely related to economic macro trends. In the future, the global economy will maintain a medium-to-low growth rate, but there are still big differences in regional development. Infrastructure construction, especially road construction, will continue to advance, making it a global semi-trailer. The development of the industry brings business opportunities, especially the logistics semi-trailer will have more room for development.
From the perspective of the new product layout of various semi-trailer manufacturers, more and more aluminum alloy parts are applied to trailers. Aluminum alloy parts have the advantages of light weight, long service life, and good recyclability. It also reduces part of its own weight while reducing its strength, effectively reducing fuel consumption. However, compared with steel materials, aluminum alloy materials are slightly inferior in terms of safety and durability. Lightweight, as an important direction for the future development of semi-trailers and even the entire automotive industry, needs to focus on solving the balance between the vehicle's own weight reduction and safety and durability.
Judging from the history of semi-trailer development in various countries in the world, technological innovation has always been an important development direction for enterprise product research and development. As market competition continues to intensify, the future competitive advantage of labor-intensive products at price will be weakened, and technological innovation will become a source of growth for trailer companies and the entire semi-trailer industry. Especially in China, at this stage, semi-trailer companies in our country generally have low technical content, simple product technology, and serious homogeneity. The semi-trailer industry has gradually changed from focusing on sales to the current focus on technology.
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